Showing posts with label CryptoCurrencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CryptoCurrencies. Show all posts

Sunday, 12 November 2017

A Tale of Two Bitcoins: Where Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash are Headed

This is a tale of two Bitcoins. After a fork in August that created Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), we have reached yet another crossroad. While another hardfork was planned around middle of November to boost Bitcoin’s block size, this fork is now dead in the water. The lack of consensus among the Bitcoin community was cited as the reason for abandoning the so-called SegWit2x plan.
Abandoning the fork lifted the Bitcoin price from $7,200 to $7,800 as traders realized their worst fears (an ugly chain split) would be avoided. However, excitement hasn’t lasted. Bitcoin is now trading at around $6,000 at press time, as traders and investors fear that SegWit by itself will not create enough capacity to scale. Indeed, at the time of this writing, there are over 140,000 unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions.
Bitcoin Cash was the surprise winner in all of this, at least temporarily. The currency which had been drifting steadily downward was lifted as high as $2,600 in a dramatic pump following the news of SegWit2x’s cancellation. While the price has since experienced a 50% retrace, spectators were stunned at the sudden rise.

An existential crisis for Bitcoin

The lack of a clear path for Bitcoin’s scaling issues are having a serious impact on Bitcoin’s price. As more users discover Bitcoin and its popularity increases, there is a growing danger that it will be a victim of its own success. We talked with Charles Hoskinson, CEO of Input Output Hong Kong, who elaborated the challenge facing Bitcoin:
“Bitcoin is at an existential crisis where it has grown large enough and attracted enough quality people to provide very clear yet different roadmaps for the future backed by passion, money and brilliance. From one perspective this creates friction and has resulted in splits. From another we get to see in parallel both philosophies play out in real time and compete for market share.In the end it's impossible to say who will win, but this is predictable sign of maturity rather than a symptom of chaos. No ecosystem can keep everyone happy nor can it satisfy divergent visions. So they have to find a way to split like so many open source projects before then without destroying the value already accumulated and the underlying communities.”

More users but also more confusion

Bitcoin’s high prices may have drawn users like bees to honey but many are likely not savvy. There is a high degree of confusion among these users that is making matters worse. A lot of them can’t probably tell the two Bitcoins apart from each other. We talked with Fran Strajnar, CEO of Bravenewcoin, who thinks we are going through yet another round of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). He tells us:
“I think the current FUD is very confusing to the millions of new people pouring into the crypto space for the first time.  'Bitcoin,' 'Bitcoin-Cash' is enough to confuse people as it is.”

BCH a classic pump and dump?

Altcoins are no stranger to the phenomenon of pump and dump. There are people out there who have the ability to increase the price of a particular coin and when there is enough buzz around a coin, it is simply the matter of dumping it and making a neat profit. Kumar Gaurav, Chairman of Cashaa has this to say on the recent increase in BCH (BCC) prices:
“The quick rise [of BCH] from around 600 to 2400 USD in a few days makes it look like a typical artificial pump which was already being followed by a dump back to $1300 USD within 30 min. As compared to the FX market, the crypto market is still small, it is easy to do that and can not be used to estimate the future of BTC vs BCC.”
Gaurav is of the view that Bitcoin has gained relative maturity with the passage of time:
“Compared to that, Bitcoin has already overcome many challenges, keeps following its pattern of steady rise and its current downwards push is one of the many only temporary ones such as in July and September this year, so we can expect it to be back on the way to 8000 USD soon, whereas [BCH] is too new to estimate whether it will grow in the long term or whether the current move was one of the typical altcoins’ pump and dumps.”
Fran also adds his voice:
“However I expect Bitcoin to be 'just fine' if it stays above $4500 as the smart money realizes that BCH has no advantage, support or adoption like BTC has.”

Both the Bitcoins can exist peacefully

The good news is that as more people discover cryptocurrencies, there is space for both flavours of Bitcoin to exist and prosper. As for the bickering within the Bitcoin community, you can’t really rule out more forks or more Bitcoin variants in the future either. This is just the way cryptocurrencies are. As Hoskinson puts it:
“Bitcoin Cash seems to be a productive split with its existence neither threatening Bitcoin's nor requiring support from Bitcoin's remaining adherents. Now Bitcoin is free to provide it's small block vision and cash the large block. My hope is that this will reduce fighting in the long run as both sides realize that the other isn't going away. Just like we did with Ethereum and Ethereum classic.”
Perhaps democracy is the biggest winner and a byproduct of cryptocurrencies, and that is the silver lining.
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Thursday, 9 November 2017

BitTorrent Inventor Announces His “Green” Bitcoin Competitor - Chia Network

Image: Chia Network
While cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin might be all the rage today, they’re criticised for their heavy consumption of energy. The more energy you use with the help of a powerful hardware, the more cryptocurrency you can mine. Recently, a new hard fork named Bitcoin Gold was facilitated to address similar issues.
Earlier this year in April, we reported that BitTorrent inventor Bram Cohen might launch his own cryptocurrency and Bitcoin-alternative. Just recently, acting well on his promise, Cohen has started a new company called Chia Network.

Chia — Cohen’s green cryptocurrency

So, how is Chia Network cryptocurrency going to be environment-friendly? How is it going to compete with Bitcoin, whose single block of transaction requires as much energy as it takes to power an American home for seven days?
Chia aims to counter this issues by basing its cryptocurrency on proofs of time and storage, not on proof of work. This means that Chia Network will use the unused and cheap storage space on your computer’s hard drives to verify its blockchain.
“We’re building a blockchain based on proofs of space and time to make a cryptocurrency which is less wasteful, more decentralized, and more secure,” Chia Network’s website reads.

How does Chia work?

Just like Bitcoin, while creating Chia, there’s a permanent immutable history that gets added to the blockchain. The “Farmers” have to prove that they’ve used resources with proofs of space and time (storage space) to mint new blocks. In exchange, the “Farmer” get rewards and transaction fees for all transactions they include.
With each minted block, the new blocks would become expensive to produce. Once a new block is minted, the farmers would collectivity switch to “farming” on top of the new block.
With the proof of storage in Chia, people with additional space can participate in farming with no additional costs. This green digital currency also addresses the increasingly centralized nature of Bitcoin, whose mining is preferable in areas with cheaper electricity and cooler environment.
According to TechCrunch, Chia Network aims to do some early sales of Chia in Q2 2018 and go ahead with the full launch by the end of 2018.
The concept of proof of storage isn’t new, but Chia’s approach looks promising. What are your thoughts on the same?
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Wednesday, 1 November 2017

A Modest Proposal': Vitalik Unveils Multi-Year Vision for Ethereum

What do you do after you've created a multibillion-dollar cryptocurrency?
A skinny, 23-year-old hacker in a green "Doge" t-shirt gave us an answer today. At ethereum's flagship conference, Devcon, project creator Vitalik Buterin revealed he has been quietly working on a new long-term plan for the future of the blockchain network. What he called a "modest proposal," it's perhaps better described as a three-to-four-year roadmap for ethereum's technical development.
Notably at the heart of the vision is a long-in-the-making technical change to ethereum called "sharding," and while always expected to be included in the protocol's plans, today Buterin proposed what might be his most solidified strategy for the technique to date.
As such, the roadmap hints at problems yet to be solved on the platform, and as the emphasis on scalability for project developers. As ethereum nodes need to store everything that ever happened on the network, Buterin stressed that there's a need for solutions that mitigate expensive storage costs that could escalate exponentially as the system expands.
It's a topic that's long been top-of-mind for the developer, as Buterin recently released new research into alleviating this problem.
Still, the talk was evidence of his emphasis on finding solutions, and of his efforts to galvanize ethereum developers more broadly to be thinking about the effort.
"The amount of activity on the blockchain is orders of magnitude larger than it was just a couple of years ago," he said, pointing to daily transaction rates and the more than 20,000 nodes now part of the network.
With this, he suggested ethereum is running up against its limits.
Buterin told the crowd:
"Scalability is probably problem number one [...] There’s a graveyard of systems that claim to solve the scalability problem but don't. It's a very significant and hard challenge.
These are just known facts."

High-level details

And Buterin believes sharding is the "likely" solution to this problem.
A way of partitioning data into subsets that takes its inspiration from traditional databases, the idea is that each node will only have to store a small chunk of the total network. Yet, the vision is that the underlying math would hold the system accountable, and if they need it, nodes could rely on other nodes for data.
How to execute on this in practice, and securely – without nodes sending other nodes false information – is another question that researchers have been looking into.
But Buterin is proposing a new type of sharding infrastructure that would solve both scalability and governance – ensuring the eventual system is well maintained and that it stays in check.
The proposal revealed today is for ethereum to be split into different types of shards. There will be the main shard, which would comprise today's ethereum network. Then there would be other shards, which Buterin calls other "universes."
Crucially, though, Buterin believes the partitioning would allow for more aggressive changes on the smaller shards, and more cautious changes on the main blockchain. That way, ethereum still has platform stability, while developers still have room to test new changes and to experiment and move fast on the other shards.
Or as Buterin put it:
"Other universes where all this stuff we’ve been working on these last few years can be rolled out much much faster."

Looking forward

Buterin's roadmap includes other changes too, though they were less prominent in his talk.
These included planned upgrades to the ethereum virtual machine (EVM), the technology that today compiles smart contract code and communicates it to the network. He also addressed another long-in-the-making tech project, eWASM, for running ethereum in a web browser, one that hints at the necessity of ensuring this system given that the EVM has been implemented in other blockchain projects as well.
Another idea proposed was for so-called "stateless clients," a proposal for how clients could sync with the network more quickly.
"You'll be hearing about this idea more and more," he said. He invited developers to contribute to the effort, much of the research of which is housed on GitHub.
But, all in all, sharding looks to be the biggest change over the next three to four years, and Buterin ended by adding there's already developer work going on in these exploratory areas.
Notably, he hinted work might be further along than widely thought.
Buterin concluded:
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Sunday, 29 October 2017

A Monero Introduction for Beginners

Monero is a rather unique cryptocurrency. It doesn't try to do anything unusual, or be Turing-complete like Ethereum. It just tries to be very good at one thing: the private and secure transfer of value.
This post will cover the very basics of Monero. It expects the reader to be technology-literate, but not necessarily know anything about how either Bitcoin or Monero work. These will all be discussed on a high level.

Let's Begin with Bitcoin

As with most resources, we will actually start by discussing Bitcoin, since it is much simpler to understand. Bitcoin is a decentralized network that is maintained by thousands of computers around the world. In the simplest sense, Bitcoin's network consists of nodes and miners.
Nodes maintain a copy of all the transactions that have ever happened. Suppose I sent you 0.1 BTC. The record of my address sending you this Bitcoin would appear in a block. Blocks contain the most recent ~10 minutes of transactions. All these blocks together form a chain, thus named the blockchain. The blockchain forever grows larger with more and more history of transactions happening on the network.
Miners aid the network by signing these blocks. The network creates a problem set that takes many attempts to solve it. The faster your computer is, the more attempts it can make each second. Miners compete against each other to solve the next puzzle, and the one who solves it get a reward. Bitcoin stays secure since the next miner to solve this puzzle is unknown. It can be any miner, and so long as no one controls a substantial portion of "hashing" power, then the network can stay secure. No one attacker can manipulate the network to solve a substantial number of blocks in a row. You don't need to trust these miners, since no one entity is large enough to negatively impact the network.
Each transaction is given a unique identifying ID, and details regarding the sending address, receiving address, and amount are all visible. Note that most of these details are long strings of randomly-generated numbers and letters.
Picture2.png
Now let's look closer at this individual transaction. Suppose Bob's wallet contains 4 inputs of 0.1 BTC, 0.5 BTC, 0.75 BTC, and 1 BTC (for a total balance of 2.35 BTC), and he would like to send 0.1 BTC to Alice. You can think of these inputs as dollar bills. It's similar to saying Bob has $180 in his wallet, divided into one each of a $100 bill, $50 bill, $20 bill, and $10 bill.
In person, if Bob wanted to give $20 to Alice, he can just hand her the $20 bill. On the blockchain, a similar thing happens with these Bitcoin inputs.
Note: I am showing the transfer of a singe input for the exact amount for simplicity. The transfer is slightly more complex with more inputs and when sending a different amount than a single input, but the general ideas are the same.
Picture3.png
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You can see how Alice now has control over this output. The information recorded in the blockchain simply states that Bob's address sent this output to Alice's address.

Bitcoin as a Private System

Many people may see the randomly-generated addresses and assume that since they are random, Bitcoin is private. They may claim that no one can see who the money belongs to and how it is being used. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
Addresses can be trivially liked together. There will be a permanent record of Bob sending money to Alice. Suppose Bob's address is hosted on a popular exchange compliant with local law, and suppose Alice later spends that money on a darknet market. Bob may be questioned about this transfer, since he has an association to how the money is spent in the future.
Similarly, suppose the money Alice receives from Bob was obtained from the WannaCry ransomware attack. Alice may be questioned, even if the transfer between these two people is completely legal.
Several companies exist whose entire purpose it is to track the transfer of funds between addresses on transparent blockchains. Below is a web provided by one of these companies, Elliptic.
Picture7.png

Privacy Systems Added to Bitcoin Don't Really Work

Developers originally sought to add systems to Bitcoin that certain people can optionally use for privacy. The most commonly used of these is a mixer.
Mixing, whether used with a website or CoinJoin, works in the following way. Users send their Bitcoin to one of these mixers, who (as the name implies) mixes up whose Bitcoin is whose. They keep a fee, and send each participant a fraction of all the coins.
Ideally, this would provide some level of untraceability. The previous source of money is now unclear. No one should know how it was previously spent, or what source of funds is being spent in the future.
Picture8.png
However, there are several shortcomings of this approach, and I argue that it does not provide a meaningful level of privacy.
Since this is an optional service that people need to go out of their way and pay additional fees to use, very few people actually mix their coins. Thus, the anonymity set is relatively small, and the few people who do actually draw attention to themselves. Mixing does not work very well if the majority of money is laundered or used on darknet markets. If the proportion of the total money supply used in mixing services is small, services could even block funds that have been mixed entirely. No knowledgeable person is going to pay extra money to mix new coinbase transactions, that's for sure.
Second, there is a level of trust in the system. Remember when I mentioned earlier that you do not need to trust miners on the network? Well, you need to trust these mixing services, even more decentralized ones like with CoinJoin or masternodes. These mixing services can retain a copy of how the funds were mixed without you even knowing. In many cases, this risk is exacerbated by how these mixers are hosted. The hosting providers can keep logs without even the owner knowing.
Recently, several researchers published a paper about BlockSci, a new system that can be used for analysis of transparent blockchains. They looked into the risk of the amount of money being used in a mixer being transparent, among other things. They found that for Dash (a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin with a CoinJoin-based mixing service), over half of their test mixed transactions could be traced back with absolute certainty by simply following the transaction amounts.
Finally, from a practicality perspective, mixing is inconvenient and can take a long time. If you attempt to mitigate the logging risk by chaining several mixing sessions together, this can take several days. Most people do not have the patience for this.
zk-SNARKs were more recently introduced, which function similarly to a mixer for coins but with very different underlying technology. I will discuss more about these new systems in a different post.

Introducing Monero

Monero takes a different approach. Instead of adding some service on top of a transparent one, Monero uses several privacy technologies at the protocol-level and makes use of these technologies mandatory. I'll explain all of these in further detail so that you can have a working understanding of all of them.
Picture9.png
In the simplest sense, Monero hides the sender, amount, transaction broadcast, and receiver with ring signatures, RingCT, Kovri, and stealth addresses, respectively.
Let's start by taking a dive into ring signatures.

Ring Signatures and RingCT

Just as the US money supply is divided into different dollar bills and coins, the Monero money supply is divided into outputs. These outputs store a certain value of Monero each, and the value they hold can change over time. Suppose that in the picture below, these are all the outputs that exist, and the one you control and can spend is highlighted in red.
Picture10.png
Keep in mind that unlike with Bitcoin, these outputs are NOT linked to addresses. I will speak more about why later.
When you create a Monero transaction, you will use a ring signature to hide which input is actually being spent. This is done by making it seem as if all of the chosen inputs are the possible real sender. In the photo, your real input is red, and five selected inputs are blue. These inputs can be controlled by anyone else, and you do not need their permission to add their input to the ring signature. Furthermore, this selection can be done entirely offline with only a copy of the blockchain. Without getting into the cryptography, you will sign all of these inputs such that an outside observer can not determine which is the real one being spent. Obviously, no one knows that yours is highlighted red :)
Now hang on, since I'm going to cover a lot of details at once. Once you have selected the other inputs, you need to finish creating the RingCT ring signature.
You sign it so it appears in such a way that all these inputs appear to be the real one used. This signature includes several other important elements.
Picture12.png
The key image is critically important. It's a one-way reference to the real input (the red one). This key image is given to the network as proof that the signature was created appropriately. The network verifies that this image has not been used before (to prevent double spends) and that it isn't a made-up number (to prevent people from spending money they never had). The network can verify this information without knowing which input is the real one.
Next is the pedersen commitment. This is very complex, but let's take a very simple look at it. This is used to prevent other people from knowing how much is actually being spent. You can use this commitment to, er, commit to spending a certain value that you have the authority to spend, but other people no longer know what this value is.
This pedersen commitment is the critical component of ring confidential transactions, or RingCT. It hides the actual value a by adding a random number x. The commitment value is calculated for the set of inputs and outputs in the transaction, and it is broadcast to the network. Let me give you a simplified example:
Bob is sending Alice 1 XMR. Bob creates the commitment as follows:
Real amount (a): 1
Random number (x): 273
Commitment (given to network): 274
Bob's wallet will give this number (274) to the network. The network will verify the sum of the committed inputs and outputs are both 274. If they are different, the transaction is rejected.
Now, everything I explained earlier all comes together to form the RingCT ring signature. This results in an unknown amount of Moneor being spent. The commitment public key is what is used by the network to verify the commitment.
So how do outputs get used over time? Let's compare Bitcoin and Monero to find out.
Picture13.png
In the picture above, I have created a theoretical history for the output you control. All of the blocks highlighted red are ones where the output appears. If this was for Bitcoin, you would be able to easily tell that this output was transferred from user A to B to C, etc. However with Monero, this is not so simple.
There are three reasons for an output to show up in a block:
  1. It is new money and a coinbase transaction
  2. It was actually spent
  3. It was added as a decoy in a ring signature
Since there is no way to differentiate between case #2 and case #3, outside observers have no idea if an output is actually being spent, even though it appears on the blockchain several times. Since every transaction includes multiple decoys, it's more likely than not that the output is not actually spent despite appearing in a certain block.
And with that, we have completed the discussion on ring signatures and RingCT! takes a deep breath
If you want someone else to explain ring signatures and RingCT, see these excellent videos:

Kovri and Transaction Broadcast

There's a lot of misconception about what this means and what the impacts of this attack vectors are. I will create a future post clarifying these in further detail.
When you connect to the peer-to-peer network of nodes to broadcast your transaction, you leak some information about yourself. You leak your IP address and metadata (eg: date, time). Monero is working on a project to hide this information called Kovri.
Kovri is an anonymizing router. In the future, nodes will connect to each other through both the clearnet and through an anonymous network. There will be ways to run either entirely with clearnet or darknet, though few users should change this setting.
Kovri will prevent malicious nodes from rejecting transactions from certain IPs or from monitoring what IPs broadcast these transactions. Perhaps most exciting though is that Kovri works with any project that wants to incorporate it, including other cryptocurrencies. It would be relatively trivial for another coin to adopt it.
People can use Tor today to mitigate this risk, but they open themselves up to several other risks.
To be clear: this does not undermine the other features, and malicious nodes still do not know if the IP addresses they receive are the real ones. It may have been broadcast through a different node first. Given the high false positive rate and significant effort needed for an attacker to collect this data, the attack is already unlikely.
Picture16.png

Stealth Addresses

Time to discuss how Monero breaks the connection between outputs and the addresses they belong to.
When you send money to someone with Bitcoin, you basically give it to them directly. You assign it to their public key (address), and they can use their private key to open it.
With Monero, things are a bit more complex. Each wallet has a pair of private keys and public keys. The cryptography is too complex to get in to here, but it basically functions like this: you create a one-time safety deposit box that only the receiver can open. It is never reused.
Receivers need to search every single one of these "boxes" to see which they are able to "unlock". They then have control over the ones assigned to them. They can take this money and place it into another "box" for someone else.
Suppose you have 10 XMR and want to send 1 XMR to me (thanks!); in this case, you will create two outputs: one for me with 1 XMR , and one for yourself with 9 XMR. You basically send the change back to yourself.
Picture14.png
If you want someone else to explain stealth addresses, see this excellent video:

Technology Summary

As we went over, a Monero transaction has an ambiguous output origin, an unknown amount in a commitment, and an unknown receiver. For every transaction on the network, all of the information stored on the blockchain is obfuscated.
Picture15.png

Some Other Items

Monero's primary focus is privacy, though there are still several other aspects that make it interesting. I have highlighted some of these below.
It has an aggressive upgrade schedule. The community does not shy away from hard forks, having three in 2017 alone. These are necessary to provide the highest level of security and privacy. Monero isn't perfect, though hard forks allow it to get better. RingCT was enabled through a hardfork at the beginning of 2017, for example.
It has a dynamic block size and dynamic fees. No Bitcoin block size debate. The number of transactions that can fit into a block will slowly increase if the demand is large enough, and it will decrease again if there is not enough demand. The fees will decrease based on transaction volume.
It has always-on privacy. I discussed this earlier, but I really want to emphasize it again. Few other coins that promise privacy can even get 10% of their transactions to use privacy features. With Monero, all of them use it, there is no way to opt out, and thus no transactions look suspicious for using privacy features.
It has view keys to provide transparency. With most coins claiming to provide privacy, the feature is either on or off for everyone in the world. With Monero, it's always on for everyone except those you allow to see certain transaction information. No matter what, information on the blockchain is obfuscated. However, you can provide a certain key to someone else so they can understand what is happening.
It has a critical community. Many people misinterpret this as harsh. While some users may be, the overwhelming message of most Monero community members has been to think critically of projects. Every Sunday, Monero users discuss the top criticisms of the coin in /r/Monero. The Monero community has a growth mindset, and is always looking for ways to improve.
It has a world-class research lab. Several researchers dedicate their time to research projects for Monero. You can learn more about these projects on the official Monero website.
It was launched fairly. There was no premine, instantmine, or ICO. There is no governing corporation or developer tax. Monero stands as a truly community-based entity.
It has a more accessible mining algorithm. Bitcoin can only be mined on specialized equipment. Monero's mining algorithm (CryptoNight) is memory-intensive, and the reward of developing specialized equipment is outweighed by the cost of developing it. You can still mine Monero on a CPU and make some money. Most people mine on GPUs. This allows even novice miners to meaningfully contribute to the network. There are arguments for and against this type of mining, but I believe it leads to decentralization.

Conclusion

That's about it! Thanks for making it all the way down here! If I piqued your interest, you can use the following links to learn more:
Source steem
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Now More Than 120 Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds

The explosive growth of cryptocurrency values has drawn in some of the investment world’s biggest players - hedge fund managers. Over the past six months, the number of crypto-focused hedge funds has exploded, moving from around 70 in August to more than 120 at the end of October.
In the last year alone, according to CNBC, more than 90 cryptocurrency funds have launched, bringing the net total to 124. These funds have more than $2.3 bln under management, with a third of the total using venture-capital style investment strategies.
The most notable addition among these is the $500 mln fund launched by Galaxy Investment Partners founder Michael Novogratz. The famous investor has publicly shared his view that lots of money can be made with digital currencies, even as the market moves.

More to come

This explosion in crypto hedge funds may be just at the beginning stages, with the sudden surge in ICOs. In spite of the recent closure of certain markets like China, and the tightening of regulations in the US, ICOs have continued their sizable move forward.
Many past ICOs have now either failed, or lost some of their initial positive news, with Tezos being first in the group. Nevertheless, the potential for substantial returns has kept many investors digging for the next digital gold mine.
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Wednesday, 11 October 2017

Analysis - 12-10-2017 - Bitcoin gets positive motive

Bitcoin gets positive motive โ€“ Analysis - 12-10-2017
Bitcoin price managed to build support base above 4800.00 level, to support the continuation of the bullish trend expectations, noticing that stochastic shows clear positive signals on the four hours' time frame, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, which its first target located at 4979.90.

Breaching the mentioned level will extend Bitcoin price gains to reach 5400.00 as a next main station, while holding above 4535.00 represents the first condition to continue the suggested bullish wave.

Expected trading range for today is between 4650.00 support and 5100.00 resistance
Expected trend for today: Bullish

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Trace Mayer Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Reach $27,395 in Just Four Months


Trace Mayer tweeted that he believes Bitcoin is currently undervalued, and that his target price for this coming February (only four months away) is $27,395 per Bitcoin. He bases this prediction on the steady increase of Bitcoin’s 200 day moving average. Mayer is extrapolating the rise of the 200 day moving average, assuming it will reach $5,767 by February. If this is the case, he asserts that a per-coin value of 4.75 times the moving average, or $27,395, would be a “fair” price.
A good month of  consolidation. 200 day moving average rising well. Next six months should be very interesting & fun. LedgerX!  ๐Ÿš€ ๐Ÿ‚

Moving averages

Technical analysis is the art of trying to determine the future price movement of an asset based on its history. While many derisively claim that it’s merely a pseudoscience, others believe that technical analysis has its roots in human psychology. Analysts are clear to point out that their work is based on probability, thus it’s possible to say that the price will likely go up or down, but the unpredictability of the markets keeps it from being a certainty.
According to Investopedia, a moving average is:
“A simple technical analysis tool that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price...A moving average can help cut down the amount of ‘noise’ on a price chart...or act as support or resistance.”
The 200 day moving average that Mayer cites is simply the average price of Bitcoin over the last 200 days. Every day, the oldest day’s data is removed, the most recent day’s closing price is added, and the metric is recalculated. Because the 200 day moving average is weighted with such old price data, in a bull market it lags significantly behind the current price. The measure’s purpose is to show the general trend of price movement.
In Bitcoin’s case, the 200 day moving average continues to rise, indicating that we remain in a bull market (momentum is on the side of the bulls). Should the moving average falter, that would be a sign of weakness and possible reversal. The current price should remain within a certain range of the moving average. If the price goes too far above it, the gains are likely unsustainable.
Mayer is predicting that the 200 day moving average will continue to rise, and that Bitcoin will remain a reasonable level above the measure. Only time will tell if Mayer is right or wrong, but history certainly seems to be on his side. After all, I wouldn’t want to bet against a guy who has made at least $120 mln off Bitcoin’s growth.

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